Episode 21

Special Episode: Are we thinking about cars the wrong way? from The Future of Mobility Podcast

Welcome to another special edition of Transit Unplugged featuring an episode from another transit podcast. This time we welcome past guest Brandon Bartneck with an episode from The Future of Mobility featuring autonomous vehicle visionary Larry Burns. The episode was released in August 2023. The original show notes are below:

Aug 2023 https://brandonbartneck.com/futureofmobility/larryburns2/

Larry Burns is a pioneer in the electrified and automated vehicle space, highly successful industry veteran, and author of Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car – And How It Will Reshape Our World. Larry joins the Future of Mobility podcast for a second time, previously appearing on Episode 93: https://brandonbartneck.com/futureofmobility/larryburns/

Key topics in this conversation include:

  • The true objective for transportation, and why we buy cars
  • Why accessibility trumps speed
  • The need to get the crash out of the system and get the mass out of the system
  • What automakers have missed over the past few decades
  • How we can create a safer transportation ecosystem
  • Why Larry is so optimistic about the future

Listen here:

Apple Podcasts: link

Google Podcasts: link

Spotify: link

Links:

Larry’s Bio:

Larry Burns advises organizations on the future of mobility, logistics, manufacturing, energy and innovation. He is a member of the Board of Directors of Niron Magnetics. His current clients include Kitson & Partners, Nanoramic Laboratories, Neural Propulsion Systems and Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE).

Larry served as General Motors Corporate Vice President of Research & Development and Planning from 1998-2009. After leaving GM, Larry has been a Professor of Engineering Practice at the University of Michigan, the Director of the Program for Sustainable Mobility at Columbia University, a consultant to Google Self-Driving Cars/Waymo and an advisor to several major companies.

Larry is the author of Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car—And How It Will Reshape Our World (with Christopher Shulgan and published by Ecco / HarperCollins on August 28, 2018).

Future of Mobility:

The Future of Mobility podcast is focused on the development and implementation of safe, sustainable, effective, and accessible mobility solutions, with a spotlight on the people and technology advancing these fields.

linkedin.com/in/brandonbartneck/

brandonbartneck.com/futureofmobility/

Rethinking Mobility: Prioritizing Accessibility Over Speed

00:03 Introduction from Paul Comfort

00:47 Future of Mobility with Brandon Bartneck and guest Larry Burns

02:24 Discussion on the Importance of Accessibility in Transportation

07:44 Exploring the Future of Mobility and Transportation

30:18 The Importance of Accessibility and Efficiency in Transportation

31:01 The Role of Autonomy in Enhancing Transportation

32:23 The Impact of Vehicle Mass and Speed on Safety and Sustainability

43:04 Exploring Business Opportunities in the Future of Mobility

46:43 The Role of Technology and Innovation in Shaping the Future of Transportation

01:03:37 Coming up next week on Transit Unplugged

Transcript
Paul Comfort:

I'm Paul Comfort, and this is Transit Unplugged.

Paul Comfort:

And on today's episode, we do another special podcast sharing

Paul Comfort:

with one of our friends in the network of transit related podcast.

Paul Comfort:

This one is with Brandon Bart Neck's podcast, the Future of Mobility.

Paul Comfort:

And his guest is Larry Burns, formerly worked with General Motors, and a

Paul Comfort:

leader in the autonomous vehicle space.

Paul Comfort:

I think you'll be very interested in what he has to say about the true

Paul Comfort:

objective for transportation, and why accessibility trumps speed, and

Paul Comfort:

why he's so optimistic about the future, and how we can create a safer

Paul Comfort:

transportation ecosystem, all on this special shared episode with our friend

Paul Comfort:

Brandon Bartnack's Future of Mobility.

Paul Comfort:

Thanks for being with us today on this episode of Transit Unplugged.

Paul Comfort:

And stay tuned for the interview.

Brandon Bartneck:

Today's guest is Larry Burns, joining for a round two discussion.

Brandon Bartneck:

Who's Larry?

Brandon Bartneck:

He was General Motors Corporate Vice President of Research and Development

Brandon Bartneck:

and Planning from 1998 through 2009.

Brandon Bartneck:

After that, he went to University of Michigan, Professor of Engineering

Brandon Bartneck:

Practice and was the Director of the Program for Sustainable Mobility at

Brandon Bartneck:

Columbia University, as well as consultant to the Google Self Driving Cars and

Brandon Bartneck:

Waymo and several other major companies.

Brandon Bartneck:

Larry is a true legend and innovator and leader in this space of future mobility.

Brandon Bartneck:

Wrote the book Autonomy, the quest to build the driverless car and

Brandon Bartneck:

how we will reshape our world.

Brandon Bartneck:

One of my favorite books, certainly my favorite book in

Brandon Bartneck:

this space of future mobility.

Brandon Bartneck:

And has done foundational work in electrification and

Brandon Bartneck:

autonomy and rethinking what the mobility landscape looks like.

Brandon Bartneck:

So, I mentioned at the beginning, round 2 discussion with Larry, he

Brandon Bartneck:

joined episode 93, which was one of my favorite episodes of the podcast so far.

Brandon Bartneck:

If you haven't listened to it, I strongly recommend you go back there and listen to

Brandon Bartneck:

that first and then join this discussion.

Brandon Bartneck:

Although this discussion can also be standalone, there isn't

Brandon Bartneck:

necessarily too much to build on.

Brandon Bartneck:

Bye.

Brandon Bartneck:

In that discussion, episode 93, we talked about Larry's background at GM,

Brandon Bartneck:

how he thinks about mobility, his work in automation, and Electrification and

Brandon Bartneck:

rethinking what he calls automobility and really the way in which we're

Brandon Bartneck:

moving goods and people through this ecosystem and the work that's being done.

Brandon Bartneck:

Great kind of foundational discussion here.

Brandon Bartneck:

We pick up for this discussion with really the top level question, the fundamental

Brandon Bartneck:

question of what is the objective?

Brandon Bartneck:

Why?

Brandon Bartneck:

Why do we care about mobility?

Brandon Bartneck:

Why do we care about transportation?

Brandon Bartneck:

What are we trying to solve?

Brandon Bartneck:

What are we trying to provide as a service to individuals in society?

Brandon Bartneck:

And I think that's a fundamental question, and it seems really simple.

Brandon Bartneck:

But also the assumptions, many of the underlying assumptions that shaped

Brandon Bartneck:

the transportation ecosystem, that shaped mobility, they've changed

Brandon Bartneck:

over the last years and decades.

Brandon Bartneck:

And so it's critical that we take a step back, re ask yourself, what

Brandon Bartneck:

are we actually trying to do here?

Brandon Bartneck:

And from there, we can then put the right solutions in place.

Brandon Bartneck:

I think an awesome, wide ranging discussion here.

Brandon Bartneck:

We talk about accessibility, we talk about the importance of

Brandon Bartneck:

getting mass out of the system.

Brandon Bartneck:

We talk about the importance of getting the crash out of the system, about

Brandon Bartneck:

getting speed out of the system, how to do some of all of these things.

Brandon Bartneck:

As always, wonderful discussion here with, with Larry.

Brandon Bartneck:

I hope you enjoy it.

Brandon Bartneck:

Please enjoy this conversation with Larry Burns.

Brandon Bartneck:

Today I'm joined once again by

Larry Burns:

Larry Burns

Brandon Bartneck:

for round two discussion here.

Brandon Bartneck:

Larry, thanks for coming back on the podcast.

Brandon Bartneck:

It's my pleasure,

Larry Burns:

Brandon.

Larry Burns:

Thanks for having me.

Brandon Bartneck:

Yeah, I'm really excited here.

Brandon Bartneck:

So the, uh, episode 93, we, we, we spoke and, um, one of my favorite episodes I've

Brandon Bartneck:

done on the podcast so far was, uh, yeah, listening back and preparing for this.

Brandon Bartneck:

And I, I think great to get your unique insights and expertise from, you know,

Brandon Bartneck:

your time at GM and also sense and I don't know, the, the combination

Brandon Bartneck:

of optimism and also realism and understanding of the technology and

Brandon Bartneck:

where how everything comes together is.

Brandon Bartneck:

Really remarkable and I'm looking forward to getting your thoughts

Brandon Bartneck:

on a few different, uh, a few different topics here today.

Brandon Bartneck:

So, the first kind of, where I want to start is maybe the

Brandon Bartneck:

most fundamental question.

Brandon Bartneck:

So we're talking future mobility.

Brandon Bartneck:

I think where I want to start is what's the point of mobility?

Brandon Bartneck:

What's the point of transportation?

Brandon Bartneck:

So what, what are we actually, why do we have a transportation ecosystem?

Brandon Bartneck:

And why is it so important that we provide mobility and movement of goods and

Larry Burns:

people?

Larry Burns:

Yes, yes.

Larry Burns:

I, I think that hierarchy is really important.

Larry Burns:

Transportation lets you move from one place to another.

Larry Burns:

It lets you access activities like jobs and school and retail stores,

Larry Burns:

entertainment that's taking place at a location other than where you are.

Larry Burns:

You jump on a vehicle, you walk, you ride a bike, and you transport yourself.

Larry Burns:

Transportation is also important because goods come to you.

Larry Burns:

And the transportation of goods in an economy are very, very

Larry Burns:

important to support that entire system from raw materials to

Larry Burns:

finished products to consumption.

Larry Burns:

So, it really, really is integral to, um, how we live and how our economies prosper.

Larry Burns:

But transportation in and of itself isn't the only way we can access activities.

Larry Burns:

Um, very importantly, what we've seen since the late 70s and early

Larry Burns:

80s is an explosion of communication and information technology that's

Larry Burns:

reshaped how we access activity.

Larry Burns:

So just think about e commerce.

Larry Burns:

Um, uh, today I can buy something almost anywhere in the world

Larry Burns:

by shopping 24 7 off my laptop.

Larry Burns:

And have it at my door many times within a day and that's pretty remarkable versus

Larry Burns:

having to get in my car and go to a store.

Larry Burns:

Um, I can remember, I'm old enough to remember when the first

Larry Burns:

automatic teller machines came out.

Larry Burns:

Before the ATM, I would get my physical paycheck and get in my car

Larry Burns:

and have to get to the bank on Friday at lunchtime because that's the

Larry Burns:

only time I could get to the bank.

Larry Burns:

Cash my check to get some physical money to spend the next week.

Larry Burns:

And, and now my kids don't even get cash.

Larry Burns:

And they don't go to a bank.

Larry Burns:

And they don't need to make that trip and schedule their lives around that trip.

Larry Burns:

So, what I'm getting at here, Brandon, is something bigger than transportation.

Larry Burns:

I like to call that accessibility.

Larry Burns:

Your ability to access the things you do to live your life.

Larry Burns:

And those are things like your job, and things like your family, and

Larry Burns:

things like, uh, going out to eat, and, uh, going to the movie, going

Larry Burns:

to church, those kinds of things.

Larry Burns:

And what we're seeing is the explosion in information technology

Larry Burns:

and communications technology is allowing us to have enormous growth

Larry Burns:

and access without having to travel.

Larry Burns:

And not having to make a trip saves you a lot more time

Larry Burns:

than making that trip faster.

Larry Burns:

So I think it's extremely important for anybody in the transportation business,

Larry Burns:

especially personal transportation business, especially the automobile

Larry Burns:

business, to really understand where accessibility is headed, and how

Larry Burns:

this next wave of information and communication technology, you know,

Larry Burns:

we've got the 5G, the quantum computing, the mixed reality, holograms, all of

Larry Burns:

that stuff, how could that reshape?

Larry Burns:

The way we live our lives and how could that reshape the economy and

Larry Burns:

what's the role of mobility devices?

Larry Burns:

I'm using those terms specifically.

Larry Burns:

I'm not saying a car, but mobility devices in, in that life that we lead.

Larry Burns:

So I, I think accessibility is a very, very important, um, uh,

Larry Burns:

future under, thing that has to be understood in the future.

Larry Burns:

And

Brandon Bartneck:

it, it feels like it's, it's critical to be

Brandon Bartneck:

able to question assumptions while, while doing this review.

Brandon Bartneck:

So, right, so like my, my job, say on the business development front, 40

Brandon Bartneck:

years ago or 30 years ago or whatever, would look very different, right?

Brandon Bartneck:

If, if you think about a, submitting a proposal at some point, it was, you know,

Brandon Bartneck:

type it up, print it, and then get in a car and go drive it and drop it off.

Brandon Bartneck:

Or even if it's going to a, a fax machine or something, but looking at

Brandon Bartneck:

that, at that access or that process of.

Brandon Bartneck:

I'm getting something physical and going and dropping it off

Brandon Bartneck:

and delivering it in person.

Brandon Bartneck:

Like, I haven't ever thought about getting in a car to go deliver a proposal, right?

Brandon Bartneck:

So like, that's a trip that's not even part of my consciousness or part of,

Brandon Bartneck:

part of consideration at this point.

Larry Burns:

Yeah, let me give you another example.

Larry Burns:

My daughter has a meal planning business.

Larry Burns:

That's what she does, a digital meal planning business.

Larry Burns:

So we cook her recipes frequently and one day we were going to make.

Larry Burns:

Uh, a dish that required tandoori seasoning, which is not something we

Larry Burns:

would normally have in our pantry.

Larry Burns:

And we were gonna make it the next day, and so I, I thought, well,

Larry Burns:

I'll go to the store, which is three miles away, and buy my tandoori

Larry Burns:

seasoning, assuming they would have it.

Larry Burns:

And by the time I would have driven to the store, parked my car, walked

Larry Burns:

around in the store, bought the season and came back, it probably would have

Larry Burns:

been about 30 minutes of my time.

Larry Burns:

And, um, plus the gasoline cost and the depreciation cost of my

Larry Burns:

car insurance, my other option was to order it on Amazon Prime.

Larry Burns:

And Amazon Prime had it on my porch.

Larry Burns:

Now this is only a 3 ounce bottle, Brandon, had it on my porch in 16 hours.

Larry Burns:

And it was 5.

Larry Burns:

60.

Larry Burns:

And if I would have factored in the travel cost, not even my time cost,

Larry Burns:

but the travel cost to go to the store, plus buy it at the store,

Larry Burns:

I would have been looking at 10.

Larry Burns:

So it was an amazingly good deal for me to get the tandoori seasoning

Larry Burns:

delivered to my house because I didn't have to make the trip and it

Larry Burns:

was a good, very, very good value.

Larry Burns:

And as someone might ask, but Larry, asking a 200 pound delivery person

Larry Burns:

to bring a three ounce bottle of seasoning and put it on your porch.

Larry Burns:

A delivery van isn't that bad for sustainability?

Larry Burns:

Well, not necessarily because so many of my neighbors are buying

Larry Burns:

things from Amazon as well.

Larry Burns:

Rarely does an Amazon truck come to my house without stopping at

Larry Burns:

a couple of neighbor's houses.

Larry Burns:

So it's this marginal cost of going from the neighbor's house to my house, versus

Larry Burns:

the cost of me driving to the store.

Larry Burns:

I find all of that very, very interesting, Brandon.

Larry Burns:

And so this blending together of how we consume and how we plan our activities.

Larry Burns:

What's so important about me not having to go to the store is I didn't have

Larry Burns:

to constrain myself around the store hours and spend my time doing that.

Larry Burns:

So this life flexibility, part of the reason we're seeing so much debate around

Larry Burns:

remote work, it's the flexibility that it gives people on their schedules.

Larry Burns:

Um, and it's enormous flexibility, especially, you're not just

Larry Burns:

saving your commute time.

Larry Burns:

But you don't have to be at a certain spot at a certain time necessarily anymore.

Larry Burns:

And that gives you great freedom compared to what we've had in the past.

Larry Burns:

By the way, that's what a car is all about.

Larry Burns:

Why would somebody pay 40, 000 for a new car and leave it

Larry Burns:

parked 95 percent of the time?

Larry Burns:

It's because they want instantaneous access.

Larry Burns:

They want to get in their car and go where they want to go, when they want

Larry Burns:

to go, with whom they travel with.

Larry Burns:

Whenever they want to, they don't want to re solve that transportation

Larry Burns:

problem, so they're buying accessibility when they buy a car.

Larry Burns:

Not, not specific trips.

Larry Burns:

Freedom to go where you want to.

Larry Burns:

That's what I think has to be understood to understand the future

Larry Burns:

of mobility and understand the future of transportation, and then therefore

Larry Burns:

the innovation and the business opportunities associated with all of that.

Larry Burns:

One mistake someone could make in business development is to say the

Larry Burns:

future is going to be like the past.

Larry Burns:

And I'm going to extrapolate from the last 10 years forward to the next 10 years and

Larry Burns:

put my business plan together around that.

Larry Burns:

I think right now that's a very, very risky thing for any company to be doing,

Larry Burns:

is that extrapolated volume calculation.

Larry Burns:

And so you think

Brandon Bartneck:

that this, this understanding is fundamental to a lot

Brandon Bartneck:

of different aspects of the future of mobility, understanding that,

Brandon Bartneck:

no, what we're actually providing is not It's not a trip, it's not, what

Brandon Bartneck:

we're providing is accessibility.

Larry Burns:

Yes.

Larry Burns:

It's fundamental, Brandon.

Larry Burns:

And a synonym for accessibility is freedom.

Larry Burns:

We're providing freedom.

Larry Burns:

We're providing opportunities for everybody to realize their full potential.

Larry Burns:

Just this weekend I read a paper about The state of health of the Americans,

Larry Burns:

and actually Americans are not as healthy as people in many other countries.

Larry Burns:

And it has a lot to do with a group of Americans who do not have

Larry Burns:

good access to health care, or good access to education to learn

Larry Burns:

about how to live a healthier life.

Larry Burns:

So we, we need to let everybody realize their full potential, and

Larry Burns:

to let everyone realize their full potential, they have to have access.

Larry Burns:

To things like knowledge and information and, uh, and

Larry Burns:

opportunities, and that's what this is all about, and transportation,

Larry Burns:

I think, has to fit within that.

Larry Burns:

Let me give you another example.

Larry Burns:

I was hired by Transport Canada to do some work in this area.

Larry Burns:

And so Transport Canada could be looking at, or Canada as a country, could be

Larry Burns:

looking at adding a lane to, um, uh, interstate highway through Toronto.

Larry Burns:

Or they could be looking at providing, um, internet access.

Larry Burns:

Um, in a remote area of Alberta.

Larry Burns:

And you might say, those are two different things.

Larry Burns:

No, they're not.

Larry Burns:

Both of them are accessibility strategies.

Larry Burns:

You've got the group of people in rural Alberta who can gain access to

Larry Burns:

everything the internet brings by having better internet service, or you can save

Larry Burns:

commuters and other travelers through Toronto a few minutes, um, on their trip.

Larry Burns:

A lot of people save a few minutes.

Larry Burns:

Both of those are accessibility, it's, we're journeying, our life is

Larry Burns:

a journey through space and time.

Larry Burns:

Um, and, uh, every one of us has this life trajectory going from place to place,

Larry Burns:

spending time to get to different places.

Larry Burns:

And, uh, therefore, if you're gonna study movement, you've gotta study it

Larry Burns:

in terms of geography and time use.

Larry Burns:

And that's why communication, information, and transportation fit together so nicely.

Larry Burns:

So I would argue, we shouldn't have a Department of Transportation, we shouldn't

Larry Burns:

have a communications agency, we should have a Department of Accessibility.

Larry Burns:

And make the right infrastructure trade offs between better

Larry Burns:

communication infrastructure or better information infrastructure.

Larry Burns:

or better transportation infrastructure with the overriding goal of

Larry Burns:

people having better access to the things that they want to do.

Larry Burns:

Again, that's the freedom.

Larry Burns:

So yeah, I think it's really important to understand the future that way, Brandon.

Brandon Bartneck:

And I think a related topic or question to one of the core

Brandon Bartneck:

themes you hear of people who talk about safe, sustainable, transportation,

Brandon Bartneck:

whatever verbiage they use, is that the optimal solution is a bunch of really

Brandon Bartneck:

big, tightly packed cities where people are Walking and biking to what they need

Brandon Bartneck:

and then that somehow, that solves most of these problems because you're not

Brandon Bartneck:

getting, you don't need as many vehicles on the road and you're not emitting as

Brandon Bartneck:

much and all of these types of things.

Brandon Bartneck:

How do you think about that solution and also the impact of kind of understanding

Brandon Bartneck:

what we're actually trying to solve for accessibility, flexibility here and

Brandon Bartneck:

how that shapes what success actually looks like within this landscape?

Brandon Bartneck:

Yeah,

Larry Burns:

yeah.

Larry Burns:

Yeah.

Larry Burns:

First of all, I start with some simple data.

Larry Burns:

When you ask Americans where they live, um.

Larry Burns:

53 percent of Americans say they live in suburbs.

Larry Burns:

24 percent say they live in rural areas.

Larry Burns:

And the rest, which is like 23%, 24 percent say they live in cities.

Larry Burns:

So while the study of transportation, um, seems to always come back to, uh,

Larry Burns:

the study of congestion, which seems to come back to congestion in cities, which

Larry Burns:

seems to come back to uh, light rail or subways or buses as alternatives to cars

Larry Burns:

or the walkable city, um, at least in America, three quarters of Americans have

Larry Burns:

voted with their choices to live somewhere other than a, a dense population center.

Larry Burns:

So back to this theme of freedom, I don't think it's up to me or

Larry Burns:

any politician to tell me where I should live or how I should live.

Larry Burns:

I think I should be able to make my choices.

Larry Burns:

I certainly don't want to harm other people with my choices.

Larry Burns:

We've got to manage these externalities of our choices.

Larry Burns:

So, your question is so important because why have cities existed historically?

Larry Burns:

Well, that's where the knowledge was, that's where the innovation

Larry Burns:

was, that's where the markets existed, but that's where the jobs

Larry Burns:

existed, and the goods existed.

Larry Burns:

But now, in today's world, I don't have to live downtown.

Larry Burns:

To do certain kinds of jobs, I can live in, remotely and do that work.

Larry Burns:

I don't have to live next to my doctor to get telehealth.

Larry Burns:

I don't have to live next to stores to have, um, goods delivered to me.

Larry Burns:

And I can get enormous amounts of information from around the world.

Larry Burns:

So I would contend the fundamental historical drivers of dense

Larry Burns:

urban areas are, are changing and changing dramatically.

Larry Burns:

And we saw that play out when the pandemic hit.

Larry Burns:

The speed at which people who lived in New York City and San Francisco and

Larry Burns:

the tech industry left the downtown area and moved to smaller towns in

Larry Burns:

Colorado, Florida, and elsewhere and haven't come back is remarkable.

Larry Burns:

And that is having a major impact on the economies of those cities.

Larry Burns:

So I would say you have to understand that through accessibility and the

Larry Burns:

pandemic put a lot of these initiatives on steroids and gave us a window into how

Larry Burns:

we, how we might be living differently.

Larry Burns:

Now my daughters are 35 and 32 and they've, they've been around long

Larry Burns:

enough to see the Great Recession.

Larry Burns:

I worked for General Motors when that hit.

Larry Burns:

We went bankrupt.

Larry Burns:

Um, I left.

Larry Burns:

I was an officer at GM.

Larry Burns:

So that's a big family crisis for us.

Larry Burns:

Dad's lost his job.

Larry Burns:

And then they've seen the pandemic, and they've seen companies cut

Larry Burns:

back when the pandemic hit.

Larry Burns:

You know what their conclusion is, Brandon?

Larry Burns:

They want to work for themselves.

Larry Burns:

They're tired of having their destiny controlled by things they can't control.

Larry Burns:

So they've both adjusted their career path to try to get into a world,

Larry Burns:

a gig worker kind of a world where they can control their own destiny.

Larry Burns:

So I think a lot of important stuff is playing out right now in the world and all

Larry Burns:

of that comes back to the auto industry and the kinds of cars and vehicles

Larry Burns:

that we might need to move around in.

Larry Burns:

And I think we really need to be examining this because what's happening, and we

Larry Burns:

talked about this in the earlier podcast.

Larry Burns:

Um, I do believe we're going to get to autonomous driving.

Larry Burns:

It's not a question of whether, it's a question of when.

Larry Burns:

And yes, it's taking longer than a lot of us had hoped or a lot of us had

Larry Burns:

hyped, but when you look at the enabling technologies that are out there to solve

Larry Burns:

the remaining challenges, you look at the continued progress of Waymo, Cruise,

Larry Burns:

Aurora with the trucks, and you look at what's going on in China, we will find the

Larry Burns:

value sweet spots with those technologies.

Larry Burns:

I think that's absolutely going to be central to getting the mass out of the

Larry Burns:

vehicles that we're moving around in.

Larry Burns:

I am really, really concerned in the United States about how

Larry Burns:

heavy vehicles have become and how much horsepower they have.

Larry Burns:

Just a couple facts quickly.

Larry Burns:

Since 1982 to 2022, 40 year period, if you look at the new cars built

Larry Burns:

and sold in 82, and compare that to the new cars built and sold in 2022.

Larry Burns:

They're 40 percent heavier in 2022, and the horsepower is 175 percent

Larry Burns:

higher, and speeds are about 55 percent higher, the rate of acceleration.

Larry Burns:

Um, and, and, um, and you say to yourself, let's see, mass is

Larry Burns:

related to kinetic energy, which is related to severity of crash.

Larry Burns:

If you hit someone and if you hit a pedestrian in a vehicle 40 pounds

Larry Burns:

heavier, Going faster than I had historically, the chances of the

Larry Burns:

pedestrian surviving go down dramatically.

Larry Burns:

Or a bicyclist, or a scooter rider.

Larry Burns:

And so, now you look at what we're doing with electric vehicles in the

Larry Burns:

United States, Cadillac just started talking about the Escalade IQ.

Larry Burns:

Brandon, it's a foot longer than the Escalade, it's four inches wider than the

Larry Burns:

Escalade, and a typical gasoline based Escalade weighs about 6, 000 pounds,

Larry Burns:

and this vehicle weighs 8, 500 pounds.

Larry Burns:

It has a 200 kWh battery, which weighs between 000 pounds, they haven't made

Larry Burns:

that public, but either number, that's the weight of the Detroit Lions offense.

Larry Burns:

Imagine going to the store to buy some milk and an Escalade IQ, and

Larry Burns:

knowing that you're taking the entire starting offense of the Detroit

Larry Burns:

Lions with you and your vehicle.

Larry Burns:

And then you say, okay, we're going to put a 7, 500 incentive

Larry Burns:

on that vehicle to get somebody to buy it because it's sustainable.

Larry Burns:

Yes, it's electric.

Larry Burns:

I get that.

Larry Burns:

But we really, really need to think hard about it.

Larry Burns:

So why is this dovetail back to accessibility?

Larry Burns:

Well, I think not only are we going to change the kinds of trips

Larry Burns:

we make in the future, I think we've got to make those trips.

Larry Burns:

and vehicles that are much better tailored with our physical mass.

Larry Burns:

So when I go from my home to my country club, and I've got a Chevy Traverse,

Larry Burns:

that's a 4, 200 pound vehicle, why am I not taking a 1, 500 pound vehicle?

Larry Burns:

Or maybe a 800 pound motorcycle?

Larry Burns:

Safety!

Larry Burns:

We gotta get the crash out of the system, get the mass out of the system,

Larry Burns:

and get the vehicles much more aligned.

Larry Burns:

With our body mass, recognizing speed isn't the be all, the

Larry Burns:

end all, it's flexibility.

Larry Burns:

Flexibility gives you much more accessibility increase than

Larry Burns:

a marginal increase in speed.

Larry Burns:

So this is all this stuff spinning around in my head right now, but

Larry Burns:

that's why accessibility, electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles,

Larry Burns:

mass, speed, horsepower, all those things are interrelated.

Larry Burns:

And I think for your age, Brandon, and your kids, um,

Larry Burns:

this is a really pivotal moment.

Larry Burns:

Um, to, to get this right.

Larry Burns:

We've got to get this right.

Larry Burns:

And

Brandon Bartneck:

how, yeah, and how do we do that, right?

Brandon Bartneck:

So like the, what you mentioned on the surface, right, of, or you look at the

Brandon Bartneck:

Hummer, there's other, I don't want to just pick on GM, because it's not

Brandon Bartneck:

just GM, because there's, there's other heavy vehicles on the road that are

Brandon Bartneck:

faster than they need to be, and Oh, the

Larry Burns:

Lightning, yeah, the Ford F 150 Lightning's a heavy

Larry Burns:

vehicle, yeah, yeah, you name it, you can find them all, yeah.

Brandon Bartneck:

So, but, but, so the thing though is, you can see

Brandon Bartneck:

how they come into existence, right?

Brandon Bartneck:

So, There's people who are asking for this, and if you look at the users,

Brandon Bartneck:

they also want to be safe on the road, they want to be able to tow certain,

Brandon Bartneck:

they want to, on the odd chance that they take the whole family for us up

Brandon Bartneck:

north here, right, or wherever on a road trip, they have the space for that, they

Brandon Bartneck:

can afford whatever price tags put on it, they don't really care about the

Brandon Bartneck:

weight because they don't feel it, they like, they like having So, um, yeah.

Brandon Bartneck:

A heavy, like a fast vehicle.

Brandon Bartneck:

So like you can see how people are making purchase decisions.

Brandon Bartneck:

You can see how that demand is driving R& D and development

Brandon Bartneck:

decisions from the automakers.

Brandon Bartneck:

It feels like this is not a system that's going to reach an optimal

Brandon Bartneck:

conclusion without some type of external involvement here.

Brandon Bartneck:

Like, what's,

Larry Burns:

what's the fix?

Larry Burns:

I think, um, number one, when we buy a car, we tend to buy

Larry Burns:

a car for the occasional use.

Larry Burns:

So the trip up north with the family and the dogs is a trip that maybe my wife

Larry Burns:

and I might make eight times a year.

Larry Burns:

But every day we're using our vehicles to move around locally and we're using a

Larry Burns:

vehicle designed and engineered for that occasional trip to make the everyday trip.

Larry Burns:

Somehow we've got to flip that around.

Larry Burns:

Somehow my everyday trips really need to be tailored.

Larry Burns:

to the fact that most of my everyday trips are made by myself,

Larry Burns:

occasionally with one other person.

Larry Burns:

In fact, 80 percent of the trips in the U.

Larry Burns:

S.

Larry Burns:

are one or two people.

Larry Burns:

But our cars are designed for four and six people.

Larry Burns:

And the trips I make typically every day, I'm not going over 45 miles an hour.

Larry Burns:

At least the speed limit on those roads don't exceed 45.

Larry Burns:

But yet, um, most of the vehicles we have can go 100, 120.

Larry Burns:

So if we can somehow flip this around and incentivize me to make

Larry Burns:

my everyday trips in a vehicle much more aligned with what's sustainable.

Larry Burns:

And it has to be safe, Brandon.

Larry Burns:

That's the number one requirement.

Larry Burns:

The number two requirement is it has to be spontaneous and responsive.

Larry Burns:

It has to be convenient.

Larry Burns:

And, um, then it has to give me a compelling experience.

Larry Burns:

So when I talk small vehicles, I'm not talking, you know, a cheap car.

Larry Burns:

Boring vehicle.

Larry Burns:

I think I could be in an exquisite, luxurious experience sitting by

Larry Burns:

myself in a mobility machine going from my home to my country club,

Larry Burns:

arriving as the best dressed rider in a vehicle that makes a statement,

Larry Burns:

but it happens to be 1, 500 pounds rather than four, five, 6, 000 pounds.

Larry Burns:

So somehow I think, I think it's a couple of things.

Larry Burns:

Number one, we have to get a A feedback system where lower mass begets lower mass.

Larry Burns:

The smaller the vehicles, the safer the system, the safer the

Larry Burns:

system, the more willing people are to ride in smaller vehicles.

Larry Burns:

Secondly, I think we have to have the ability to get you that occasional

Larry Burns:

use vehicle when you need it.

Larry Burns:

Not riding in it all the time, but it gets to you conveniently.

Larry Burns:

Think car rental.

Larry Burns:

But think, the car shows up at your door when you're ready to

Larry Burns:

make your trip up north and it shows up at your door autonomously.

Larry Burns:

So you're not getting the labor costs of having to get that car to you.

Larry Burns:

So somehow if we can flip this around, and I'm, I'm, I don't mean to be pie

Larry Burns:

in the sky here, this is not easy.

Larry Burns:

And I'm somewhat idealistic, I recognize this.

Larry Burns:

But if you're looking for solutions, we've got to flip this around.

Larry Burns:

Rather than me buying a vehicle that can do everything.

Larry Burns:

And then compromising the one person, low speed, short trip by taking that

Larry Burns:

vehicle that does everything, flip it around, have me own or lease the

Larry Burns:

vehicle that does optimally most of the trips I make, and then find a way to

Larry Burns:

get an occasional use vehicle to me.

Larry Burns:

And I think those businesses can work.

Larry Burns:

Rental car companies work.

Larry Burns:

Heck, if you go To Denver in the winter because you want to take a

Larry Burns:

ski trip, they'll be, oh, there's a lot of four wheel drive cars that

Larry Burns:

you rent in Denver because that's when you need a four wheel drive car.

Larry Burns:

Somehow the rental car companies make that business work.

Larry Burns:

So I just think there's business models and there's ways to rethink this.

Larry Burns:

Autonomous vehicles are very, very important, not just for me riding

Larry Burns:

around without having to drive, but very important if we're going to have

Larry Burns:

shared fleets like that, getting the empty vehicle to me so I can ride in it.

Larry Burns:

And not having to have a labor cost to do that is an exciting opportunity.

Larry Burns:

I think there's a solution.

Larry Burns:

Um, again, I don't want to sound naive that it's going to happen immediately,

Larry Burns:

but your generation better get on with thinking about this because I don't

Larry Burns:

think you want to wake up 40 years from now like I have woken up 1982 to 2022.

Larry Burns:

All of this effort by regulators, everybody, in that

Larry Burns:

entire period from 1982 on.

Larry Burns:

Keep in mind, Brandon, the first safety regulations, the first fuel

Larry Burns:

economy regulations, the first emission regulations were in the 1970s.

Larry Burns:

So, the United States leaders acknowledged we had issues.

Larry Burns:

And the measure of progress on the automotive fleet in the United States

Larry Burns:

is that in that time period since we acknowledged we had an issue,

Larry Burns:

cars have gotten 40 percent heavier and 175 percent more powerful.

Larry Burns:

How can that be part of the answer, given the role that mass plays with respect

Larry Burns:

to energy consumption, with respect to safety, and with respect to material

Larry Burns:

consumption when you build the car?

Larry Burns:

So that 200 kWh battery in that Escalade IQ has lithium in it.

Larry Burns:

And everybody's concerned about lithium mines.

Larry Burns:

So we're gonna mine lithium, put it in a 200 kWh battery.

Larry Burns:

That's going to sit idle 95 percent of the time and we're worried about

Larry Burns:

geopolitical and environmental aspects of lithium mines.

Larry Burns:

We've got to really step back, Grant, and I think rethink the

Larry Burns:

future through an accessibility lens.

Larry Burns:

Communication, information, and transportation.

Larry Burns:

How do I get access without having to move because that's much more

Larry Burns:

energy efficient than Moving faster.

Larry Burns:

And then when I do have to move, how do I do that access tailored to

Larry Burns:

the real requirements of my trip?

Larry Burns:

A one person trip, shouldn't that be in a one or two person vehicle rather

Larry Burns:

than a four or six person vehicle?

Larry Burns:

Um, all of that kind of thought process.

Larry Burns:

So I think, I think it can be thought through, Brandon.

Larry Burns:

But I'm telling you, if we just keep doing business as usual here, and we

Larry Burns:

extrapolate the past forward, Your generation is going to look back

Larry Burns:

and be as sad about the results as I do when I look back on my cohort

Larry Burns:

group and where we've led the world.

Brandon Bartneck:

Yeah, and how, I don't know, so we talked to, we've touched

Brandon Bartneck:

on it here, we've talked a bit on the last discussion about, you know, the

Brandon Bartneck:

importance of autonomy and you mentioned get the crash out of the system allows

Brandon Bartneck:

you to get the mass out of the system.

Brandon Bartneck:

You have this positive loop that will allow us to over time.

Brandon Bartneck:

If we, when, when we do have more autonomous vehicles on the road in safer

Brandon Bartneck:

conditions, that, that will bode very well, um, but in the, in the meantime, or

Brandon Bartneck:

as we continue to develop that technology and prove it out, um, I guess back to,

Brandon Bartneck:

back to this question of like, what do we, who are the main people who can actually

Brandon Bartneck:

make an impact on here and, and how?

Brandon Bartneck:

And I mentioned, I mean, the personal user, right?

Brandon Bartneck:

Like, I don't know, is it worth, do I take the, uh, And MARTA is maybe a

Brandon Bartneck:

strong word, but is it worth it that I go and buy a light vehicle just because

Brandon Bartneck:

that's, that's the right thing to do?

Brandon Bartneck:

And maybe it's slightly riskier for me driving my, my son around?

Brandon Bartneck:

Is it right for, I mean, the OEMs will say, hey, we had that, we

Brandon Bartneck:

had those light luxury vehicles.

Brandon Bartneck:

They weren't, they either weren't selling or they just weren't making as much

Brandon Bartneck:

on a per margin, per vehicle margin basis from a profitability perspective.

Brandon Bartneck:

So they lean into these big vehicles and like there's other actors who.

Brandon Bartneck:

I don't know, people have good excuses for why we are where we are.

Brandon Bartneck:

Like, who is, yeah, who owns the burden and should take the first

Brandon Bartneck:

step here of actually let's, let's get us towards a safer,

Larry Burns:

better system?

Larry Burns:

That's a marvelous question.

Larry Burns:

I happen to believe safety's gotta be the overriding priority.

Larry Burns:

And so would I want you to just buy a light vehicle and perhaps put you and your

Larry Burns:

family at risk because you're trying to do the right thing from an energy standpoint?

Larry Burns:

I would be concerned about that, Brandon, but I'm also concerned

Larry Burns:

about the safety of pedestrians.

Larry Burns:

My goodness, there's a tragedy in Detroit just this last week where

Larry Burns:

the CEO of Eastern Market and his wife, as pedestrians, were hit by

Larry Burns:

a car in downtown Detroit and she died and he was severely injured.

Larry Burns:

I don't know the specifics around that crash, but that's an unfair Um, situation,

Larry Burns:

the pedestrian having to be put up against a vehicle moving at a speed and

Larry Burns:

a mass like it is, so I just, I just feel like, um, we first could do, you know,

Larry Burns:

digital twins of the system that we're envisioning and really begin to better

Larry Burns:

understand This, uh, lower mass because lower mass dynamic and where it could end.

Larry Burns:

I, I believe in the field of dreams.

Larry Burns:

If I build it, they will come.

Larry Burns:

So I think we've got to show it in some places and in some communities

Larry Burns:

where people indeed can live with a much lighter mass mix of vehicles.

Larry Burns:

They can indeed get the occasional used vehicle.

Larry Burns:

But, but I, I do think regulating fuel economy has not gotten the job done.

Larry Burns:

Um, I, I shared cars in general statistics versus 1982.

Larry Burns:

If you look at pickup trucks specifically, pickup trucks, 1982

Larry Burns:

new pickup trucks versus 2022 new pickup trucks, they're 50 percent

Larry Burns:

heavier, 210 percent more powerful.

Larry Burns:

Zero to 60 is 60 percent faster, and you know what?

Larry Burns:

There's been no improvement in the fuel economy of those pickup trucks.

Larry Burns:

For 40 years.

Larry Burns:

So, scratch our head and say, that's not, that hasn't worked.

Larry Burns:

So maybe we have to start thinking about regulating mass.

Larry Burns:

Maybe we could do that in a proactive way, where I incentivize people who

Larry Burns:

buy lower mass vehicles, or And a, um, uh, uh, uh, on the other side,

Larry Burns:

if you get a, if you want to have a larger, heavier vehicle, you have

Larry Burns:

to pay more for your license plate.

Larry Burns:

And that, that's done in Europe, by the way.

Larry Burns:

That's not a new idea.

Larry Burns:

But just public policy in general says there's an externality with mass.

Larry Burns:

That my decision to drive a much heavier vehicle has an impact on you.

Larry Burns:

Because you're mixing in a fleet of vehicles with my heavier vehicle.

Larry Burns:

How does that compare to secondhand smoking?

Larry Burns:

When the world realized, or the United States world realized that if I

Larry Burns:

smoked, I'm impacting my office mate, and therefore, I shouldn't be able

Larry Burns:

to smoke in front of other people, that's a big deal, and the rate of

Larry Burns:

smoking is down dramatically, so maybe there's some lessons learned here.

Larry Burns:

It's not going to happen overnight.

Larry Burns:

But the first step is, I think, acknowledging that what's been done in the

Larry Burns:

last 40 years hasn't gotten the job done.

Larry Burns:

The second step is realizing that if we keep making these vehicles

Larry Burns:

bigger with EVs, we're not on a path to sustainability the way the

Larry Burns:

environmentalists think we might be.

Larry Burns:

And therefore, we've got to do something different, and maybe the

Larry Burns:

two real leverageable variables in this system are mass and speed.

Larry Burns:

And I can demonstrate, Brandon, in detail with graphics and other things

Larry Burns:

how speed is way overplayed as an important thing in our daily lives.

Larry Burns:

What I'm saying is, if I can improve your speed twice as fast in your daily

Larry Burns:

life, that doesn't come close to the accessibility enhancement I give you just

Larry Burns:

by giving you flexible working hours.

Larry Burns:

Because flexible working hours lets you be at more places at more times,

Larry Burns:

lets you manage your schedule better.

Larry Burns:

So if your metric is accessibility, uh, speed matters, being able to go faster

Larry Burns:

than I walk matter, but it certainly doesn't matter 70 miles per hour on I 96

Larry Burns:

versus 85, or 90, and the flow of traffic.

Larry Burns:

So I think enforcing speed limits is going to be important.

Larry Burns:

I think we've got to get the masks on, we've got to enforce speed limits.

Larry Burns:

And then I think we have to get incentives for less mass begets

Larry Burns:

less mass and ultimately get to that by showing what's possible.

Larry Burns:

So I don't give up on that.

Larry Burns:

I'm hopeful that we can find a way to solve it.

Larry Burns:

And the first step is to recognize we've got a problem here.

Larry Burns:

But we've got an opportunity.

Larry Burns:

We have a huge opportunity with accessibility.

Larry Burns:

Because if we can get everybody these things and laptops and

Larry Burns:

really good access to telehealth.

Larry Burns:

And all of that stuff.

Larry Burns:

I mean, you take something like diabetes, does a person have to physically go to

Larry Burns:

the doctor to have their diabetes treated?

Larry Burns:

Or can you do that with, with, uh, sensors through your, your, your phones

Larry Burns:

and other things and get the medicine there through an e commerce type system?

Larry Burns:

And, and really move the needle on health because of accessibility,

Larry Burns:

which is information communication.

Larry Burns:

Is this making sense, Brandon?

Brandon Bartneck:

Yeah, it is, and I guess one quick side note on the speed

Brandon Bartneck:

question, or the speed note, actually, one of the, when I did a deep dive a

Brandon Bartneck:

few episodes ago with Waymo, Francesca Favaro on safety, I asked her what was

Brandon Bartneck:

the biggest surprise for her as she got into the data, and she said, yeah, the

Brandon Bartneck:

impact and the crazy speed involved in such a high percentage of the crashes

Brandon Bartneck:

and incidents that they were viewing, it's, yeah, it's potentially astounding.

Brandon Bartneck:

I mean, I can't, how big How much speeding actually contributes to

Brandon Bartneck:

certainly the safety aspect and even the sustainability aspect, right?

Brandon Bartneck:

Vehicles moving faster, like it's, it's nonlinear the amount of additional

Brandon Bartneck:

energy that they utilize as well.

Larry Burns:

If you look at the history of transportation planning and

Larry Burns:

transportation engineering, a lot of the.

Larry Burns:

Tools came to be when the interstate system was being planned in the U.

Larry Burns:

S.

Larry Burns:

in the 50s and 60s.

Larry Burns:

And so you had to do a cost benefit analysis on adding capacity to a lane

Larry Burns:

in the freeway, to the freeway system.

Larry Burns:

And so they would say, well, by having more capacity, we can save travel time.

Larry Burns:

So we would save five minutes for a lot of people.

Larry Burns:

And so you take a lot of people times five minutes times wage

Larry Burns:

rate, and that's a lot of benefit.

Larry Burns:

The real question is, what are those people doing with that 5 minutes?

Larry Burns:

Versus really having the flexibility of maybe, uh, getting to work anytime

Larry Burns:

between 7 in the morning or 9 in the morning, leaving anytime between 4 and

Larry Burns:

6, and realizing how that enables you to be a coach for your kids baseball

Larry Burns:

team, and have access to all kinds of experiences in your life because

Larry Burns:

you have more control over your time.

Larry Burns:

And that's much more valuable than that marginal increase in speed.

Larry Burns:

And I always wonder when, when people do blow by me on the expressway, I'm

Larry Burns:

saying where are they going, and why do they have to get there, and why

Larry Burns:

are they putting me at risk to be able to go 90 miles an hour on the freeway

Larry Burns:

rather than 70, and what are they going to do with their extra 10 minutes

Larry Burns:

when they get to their destination?

Larry Burns:

So I, I just think we have to have a, we really need to step back and

Larry Burns:

think about what's going on here and not say, Something as simple as

Larry Burns:

we just have to get everybody in an electric vehicle and we're all set.

Larry Burns:

That's not the answer to sustainability, Brandon, for your generation.

Larry Burns:

Not that electric vehicles are bad, I really believe in them, but it's a much

Larry Burns:

more complex, much bigger set of questions than we just gotta get everybody in

Larry Burns:

an electric vehicle and we're all set.

Brandon Bartneck:

Yeah, and I think this point of realizing the under arching

Brandon Bartneck:

objective and what we're actually trying to do which is enrich lives

Brandon Bartneck:

with Giving the ability for people to move from place to place and to have

Brandon Bartneck:

goods moved from, from place to place is so important and something that I've

Brandon Bartneck:

struggled with kind of anecdotally, right?

Brandon Bartneck:

So like, I chose to live, I choose, continue to choose to

Brandon Bartneck:

live in a suburb because I, this is for, for various reasons.

Brandon Bartneck:

I have now a commute that's an hour one way on an expressway, which I, on the

Brandon Bartneck:

surface, would, would never want to do.

Brandon Bartneck:

But the fact that I'm making that drive on average twice a week and I do it.

Brandon Bartneck:

When it makes sense, and timing's very flexible, and I'm remote on a day like

Brandon Bartneck:

this, and I'm able to be there with my son at breakfast to help out with,

Brandon Bartneck:

like, there's so much more factors that, like, if I take a step back and look at,

Brandon Bartneck:

like, the super rational mind is, no, I should live right next to my work, and I

Brandon Bartneck:

should optimize, and I should just make all my decisions around that, or, like,

Brandon Bartneck:

I should live in a city center for all the reasons so that I can walk and bike

Brandon Bartneck:

to places, but, like, that's not what I've valued in my life so far, and I

Brandon Bartneck:

don't think it's because I'm Thank you.

Brandon Bartneck:

Foolish, or that I, I mean, I'm probably foolish for other reasons, but I don't

Brandon Bartneck:

think it's because of poor judgment.

Brandon Bartneck:

It's just I'm optimizing for something different than

Brandon Bartneck:

what has been the narrative.

Larry Burns:

Absolutely.

Larry Burns:

I say that's just let everybody realize their full potential.

Larry Burns:

Let everybody have the freedom to live the way that they want.

Larry Burns:

By the way, the person that decides they want to live in a downtown

Larry Burns:

area Also should have the peace of mind that if they're walking

Larry Burns:

downtown, they're going to be safe.

Larry Burns:

They're not going to be compromised by an escalade limousine rushing down an

Larry Burns:

avenue to try to beat a light because they think they've got a client in the

Larry Burns:

back seat that thinks their time is really more precious than the safety

Larry Burns:

of the pedestrians on those streets.

Larry Burns:

And that doesn't mean you can't have escalades as limousines.

Larry Burns:

Yes, you can.

Larry Burns:

But my thesis would be, you have to pay for the externality of your mass

Larry Burns:

and power if you want to have one because you are imposing a risk on other

Larry Burns:

people, and I don't think that's fair.

Brandon Bartneck:

Yeah, and I think this is a tough question, but it goes

Brandon Bartneck:

along with, so, getting towards this, this future, safer, accessible, kind

Brandon Bartneck:

of transportation ecosystem or mobility ecosystem or, Just even out beyond

Brandon Bartneck:

that, like in enriching lives, we mentioned kind of the externalities and

Brandon Bartneck:

the role potentially of public policy.

Brandon Bartneck:

You also, one of the themes here has been, there are business opportunities

Brandon Bartneck:

opening in the cracks too, right?

Brandon Bartneck:

Of like, as we make this understanding that, as we realize that, no it's not.

Brandon Bartneck:

It's not that people want to move from place to place in

Brandon Bartneck:

an incrementally faster way.

Brandon Bartneck:

It's that they want flexibility and they want accessibility.

Brandon Bartneck:

That's how something like Amazon, right?

Brandon Bartneck:

That whole business was built around solving this.

Brandon Bartneck:

Do you have any thoughts on, either examples of, or thoughts of,

Brandon Bartneck:

kind of, um, theoretically, like, where there are additional cracks,

Brandon Bartneck:

where there are real business opportunities and opportunities to make

Larry Burns:

an impact?

Larry Burns:

Well, I'm going to kick myself on this one a bit, because my dissertation, I

Larry Burns:

went to University of California, Berkeley for my PhD, and I wrote my dissertation.

Larry Burns:

It was a book called the um, Transportation, Temporal and

Larry Burns:

Spatial Components of Accessibility.

Larry Burns:

It's a real mouthful, but I was into this stuff in the middle 70s, 1970s,

Larry Burns:

and I, and I wrote the book, and the conclusion in the book was really

Larry Burns:

that this, this time dimension and flexibility was more important than speed.

Larry Burns:

That came through crystal clear.

Larry Burns:

Also what came through crystal clear at that time was it was

Larry Burns:

going to be really tough for bus systems to compete with cars.

Larry Burns:

If the metric is accessibility, if you've got a car parked outside and you

Larry Burns:

can spontaneously go where you want to, when you want to, and not be relying

Larry Burns:

on routes and schedules, you just really, really have a better solution.

Larry Burns:

So I have that on my mind, and then I begin to watch the, looking

Larry Burns:

back, because I did not work on this subject after I graduated.

Larry Burns:

I went to work at General Motors and learned the business of

Larry Burns:

designing, engineering, and manufacturing cars, and I loved it.

Larry Burns:

It was a great career.

Larry Burns:

And it wasn't until 1998, when I became head of R& D at GM, that Rick

Larry Burns:

Wagner, who was my boss at the time, said, Larry, if we were inventing

Larry Burns:

the car today rather than 100 years ago, what would we do different?

Larry Burns:

And he said, I need you to think about that for us.

Larry Burns:

That liberated me to go back and begin to think about accessibility, Brandon.

Larry Burns:

And what I realized is all the things that have come along in

Larry Burns:

information and communication.

Larry Burns:

So the laptop computer, the mobile phone.

Larry Burns:

Um, streaming, um, virtual reality, augmented reality, um, and uh, e commerce.

Larry Burns:

All of those things happened, and I said, well, what happened in the transportation

Larry Burns:

industry to enhance accessibility?

Larry Burns:

We were more obsessed with cup holders.

Larry Burns:

And the last big accessibility innovation in the transportation system in the U.

Larry Burns:

S.

Larry Burns:

was the interstate system in the 50s.

Larry Burns:

So what I'm saying here is focus on time flexibility as

Larry Burns:

a business and an innovator.

Larry Burns:

Anything you can do that helps people use their time more efficiently, and helps

Larry Burns:

them have better experiences in life around that, I think you have winning

Larry Burns:

business opportunities because Apple, Amazon, um, you know, uh, Microsoft,

Larry Burns:

uh, these extremely valuable companies.

Larry Burns:

They really innovated in accessibility and the communication and

Larry Burns:

information technology world, but it really came back to time use.

Larry Burns:

Even Google's foundation, Alphabet's foundation, was search.

Larry Burns:

And when I wrote my dissertation, I had to go to a physical library

Larry Burns:

to get a physical journal article and check it out and reference it.

Larry Burns:

They came up with this search capability, which has turned into this enormous

Larry Burns:

capability of access to information, with great business models behind it.

Larry Burns:

So I think we're just getting started, to be honest.

Larry Burns:

Even though the journey from 1980 to today on accessibility with the communication

Larry Burns:

and information innovation has been phenomenal, and it's reshaped how we

Larry Burns:

live, I think it's just getting started.

Larry Burns:

And the technology that's going to now combine in the next 10

Larry Burns:

years, Again, quantum computing is an example, and all of that.

Larry Burns:

I think there's going to be a huge set of new business opportunities,

Larry Burns:

but I don't think it's going to be rooted in physically moving me.

Larry Burns:

I think we're going to be physically moving, uh, electrons and atoms,

Larry Burns:

and, and, um, bits and digits and all of that stuff, information,

Larry Burns:

and throw 3D printing into the mix.

Larry Burns:

And you begin to think about the labor implications of that.

Larry Burns:

I'm on the board of a real estate developer in Florida.

Larry Burns:

We're doing a new town called Babcock Ranch.

Larry Burns:

We just hosted an innovation workshop for home building.

Larry Burns:

My gosh, Brandon, the progress that innovators are making with

Larry Burns:

3D printed homes is phenomenal.

Larry Burns:

And you think about the labor implications of 3D printing a wall.

Larry Burns:

With the exterior surface finished with the 3D printer, the interior surface

Larry Burns:

is finished with the 3D printer.

Larry Burns:

There's not drywall.

Larry Burns:

The conduits for the HVAC and the plumbing and the wiring are all

Larry Burns:

integrated into those wall systems and they snap together like Lego blocks.

Larry Burns:

So, again, it's productivity driven, it's time use driven, and that's

Larry Burns:

where the business opportunities really are in all of this.

Larry Burns:

And you know what's good about it?

Larry Burns:

I think it's more sustainable.

Larry Burns:

Much more sustainable.

Larry Burns:

So, um, there's a winning combination out there that sustainability is good

Larry Burns:

business if you use design innovation to deliver new, exciting experiences

Larry Burns:

to people, but really, really gets the waste out of the system.

Larry Burns:

Because a lot of that waste is over processing and extra material

Larry Burns:

and extra energy and extra mass.

Larry Burns:

So if I was your age, I would be focused on what I call design innovation.

Larry Burns:

Focused on the entire experience of people living their lives.

Larry Burns:

How do we make them better?

Larry Burns:

And then, um, the technology innovation that lets you have even greater

Larry Burns:

experiences in your design system.

Larry Burns:

And then I would throw in some operational excellence because you

Larry Burns:

gotta deliver the good experiences.

Larry Burns:

Huge opportunities out there.

Brandon Bartneck:

Yeah, cool.

Brandon Bartneck:

And while you're talking there, I mean, so I just recorded it just, just before

Brandon Bartneck:

this, I'll probably come out a couple of weeks after this, this episode.

Brandon Bartneck:

But with, uh, Corey Clothier talking about AV or autonomous vehicle

Brandon Bartneck:

applications and this, this question of like, where, so what you're mentioning

Brandon Bartneck:

of autonomous vehicles and what we're talking about here is like private use

Brandon Bartneck:

vehicles is that's the Holy grail that we're working towards, but even, even

Brandon Bartneck:

in the mid midterm, there are autonomy.

Brandon Bartneck:

Capabilities.

Brandon Bartneck:

So we talked about like applications of on a mine moving, you know, a 90

Brandon Bartneck:

mile stretch and not needing a driver or like on a huge, on a huge campus,

Brandon Bartneck:

the ability to send a vehicle to go pick something up for you and come back

Brandon Bartneck:

rather than you needing to go do that.

Brandon Bartneck:

Like, it feels like even in the here and now today, there are really cool

Brandon Bartneck:

technologies that exist of where you can apply Things like an autonomous vehicle

Brandon Bartneck:

in a closed setting and yeah, you can save that trip, save that time for the human.

Larry Burns:

Absolutely, we're gonna find those use cases and some

Larry Burns:

people call that geofencing, but they're getting darn close, Brandon.

Larry Burns:

When Mary Barra introduces ultra cruise and she says it can handle 95 percent of

Larry Burns:

driving scenarios, that's pretty profound.

Larry Burns:

Now, that's not 95 percent of miles.

Larry Burns:

A driving scenario may be, uh, weather, uh, traffic conditions,

Larry Burns:

um, those kinds of things.

Larry Burns:

Time of day, day of year, wind, uh, dust, those things.

Larry Burns:

But that 95 is going to become 96, it's going to become 97, 98, and at some point,

Larry Burns:

rather than calling it advanced driver assistance system, where the assumption

Larry Burns:

is the technology is assisting the driver, we're going to flip that around.

Larry Burns:

And a occupant in the vehicle is going to be assisting the technology.

Larry Burns:

It's a big switch, but it's real important to understand what I just said.

Larry Burns:

Now the assumption is most of the driving is being done with the

Larry Burns:

technology, and occasionally I need a human to help me make a decision.

Larry Burns:

So let's say, you know like on your mapping system in your car, they

Larry Burns:

say, Hey Brandon, in a quarter of a mile you're going to turn right.

Larry Burns:

And then they say in a thousand feet you're going to turn right, in a

Larry Burns:

hundred feet you're going to turn right.

Larry Burns:

In the future, it might be, you're sitting there and you're engaging with your kids

Larry Burns:

and having fun, maybe you're playing a game in the car or something like that,

Larry Burns:

and then suddenly, Hey, Brandon, in a quarter of a mile, I'm going to need

Larry Burns:

to have you help me make a decision.

Larry Burns:

And that's the technology asking you that.

Larry Burns:

And they, it then says, up the road, we're going to make a left turn.

Larry Burns:

I've done this many, many times as my technology can handle it, but today

Larry Burns:

The weather's a little different, the traffic's a little different.

Larry Burns:

Would you just look out the window, right and left, and when I say I

Larry Burns:

think I'm ready to make my left turn, you say yes, you're right.

Larry Burns:

Boy, that'd be a big help to me.

Larry Burns:

It's that kind of thing, Brandon.

Larry Burns:

So now it's, the human is assisting the technology.

Larry Burns:

And that's going to completely change the experience of everybody in the car.

Larry Burns:

And when we start to approach that capability, and you're saying,

Larry Burns:

as a driver, you have to sit with your eyes on your road, your hands

Larry Burns:

over your wheel, your feet over the pedals, you're not going to do that.

Larry Burns:

Driving is the distraction at that point in time.

Larry Burns:

And you're going to let your mind wander.

Larry Burns:

That's just a reality.

Larry Burns:

So, oh, this is going to get exciting.

Larry Burns:

And then you say, the camp is kind of setting.

Larry Burns:

So some people would say, how wasteful is it that Larry would dispatch his

Larry Burns:

robotic vehicle To run up to the wine store to get the wine store to

Larry Burns:

put some wine in the car to bring it back home all those empty miles.

Larry Burns:

Well, if I had driven my car to the wine store and drove it back, they

Larry Burns:

would not count that as an empty mile.

Larry Burns:

They'd count that as a loaded mile, but it's the same miles

Larry Burns:

and it didn't use my time.

Larry Burns:

So some of this is rooted in these metrics that we talk about.

Larry Burns:

And I know when I first started writing about autonomous vehicles, they were

Larry Burns:

uber like systems without drivers.

Larry Burns:

Oh my god, people would jump at my analysis and say, we can't have

Larry Burns:

all those empty miles out there.

Larry Burns:

Well, there's a lot of empty miles.

Larry Burns:

Think of all the empty seat miles when I drive my 8 passenger

Larry Burns:

Traverse with just myself in it.

Larry Burns:

I'm taking seven empty seats with me all the time.

Larry Burns:

So the point we're making here, Brandon, in our discussion, there is enormous

Larry Burns:

opportunity to make the world better.

Larry Burns:

There's enormous opportunity for everybody to be able to flourish.

Larry Burns:

I'm talking about Republicans and Democrats, red states, blue

Larry Burns:

states, rural areas, college educated, high school educated.

Larry Burns:

We've got to get our mind around how do we make things better

Larry Burns:

for everybody simultaneously.

Larry Burns:

I think this accessibility lens And the way that technology is going to shape

Larry Burns:

how we can access things in the future in a much more energy efficient, much

Larry Burns:

safer, much more materials efficient world with much greater equality of access.

Larry Burns:

All of that is there for the having by your generation, because my

Larry Burns:

generation dropped the ball big time.

Brandon Bartneck:

And you just touched on, or you've touched on this a couple

Brandon Bartneck:

times, but this idea of like the, the common critiques of the empty miles or the

Brandon Bartneck:

incremental drop off from, from Amazon.

Brandon Bartneck:

It sounds like that's not necessarily something that's,

Brandon Bartneck:

that's super concerning to you.

Brandon Bartneck:

And then part of the, part of the things I've struggled with when that

Brandon Bartneck:

idea gets brought up, and we talk about robo taxi fleets and, you know, you,

Brandon Bartneck:

you picture this future of a bunch of, Empty Ubers driving around waiting for

Brandon Bartneck:

something like these, all the actors in the system are going to be optimized

Brandon Bartneck:

to minimize those empty miles and to be as efficient and effective as possible.

Brandon Bartneck:

Right?

Brandon Bartneck:

So

Larry Burns:

why, why, if you were a fleet owner, if you were a fleet owner

Larry Burns:

and your cost structure was depreciation and maintenance and insurance and energy.

Larry Burns:

Why would you have your car driving around empty, hovering, you, you would

Larry Burns:

have it go set, set and stage somewhere.

Larry Burns:

And we, we, you know, it's hard to pin down exactly how many parking

Larry Burns:

places are in the United States.

Larry Burns:

But I think a good rule of thumb is on the order of six to eight parking spaces

Larry Burns:

exist for every car in the United States.

Larry Burns:

So we've got a huge amount of land today.

Larry Burns:

Some of that can still be used for these vehicles to stage themselves and not

Larry Burns:

ride around, but they can go somewhere and just stage in an orderly way.

Larry Burns:

But you know, there's a lot of people who would just soon not have the futures

Larry Burns:

we're talking about here today happen.

Larry Burns:

So they're gonna find these dramatic alternative stories.

Larry Burns:

Like, oh my gosh, a cruise vehicle caused some traffic to back up in San Francisco.

Larry Burns:

Well, you know what?

Larry Burns:

There's a lot of everyday drivers who cause traffic to

Larry Burns:

back up in San Francisco, too.

Larry Burns:

We just don't report on it.

Larry Burns:

We report on the cruise vehicle or the Waymo vehicle that does that.

Larry Burns:

But I think you should be optimistic.

Larry Burns:

Your listeners should be optimistic that, personally, I don't think

Larry Burns:

anything needs to be invented.

Larry Burns:

Honestly, invented to make this world that I see play out, and this world that

Larry Burns:

I see play out, I think, has a whole lot of positives associated with it.

Larry Burns:

But if there's groups of people who think, well, we've got that job done

Larry Burns:

by making every car 1, 500 to 3, 000 pounds heavier, uh, with lithium

Larry Burns:

ion batteries, and we've solved the climate change issue in transportation.

Larry Burns:

Nope, that's not the answer.

Larry Burns:

I'm all in favor of electric drive, all in favor of zero emission vehicles, all

Larry Burns:

in favor of alternatives to fossil fuels.

Larry Burns:

But from a transportation system standpoint, adding all that mass to

Larry Burns:

the system makes no sense to me at all.

Larry Burns:

By the way, we need to benchmark China on that.

Larry Burns:

That's not what's happening in China, Brandon.

Larry Burns:

They're playing, they're getting some really, really compelling vehicles with

Larry Burns:

30 kilowatt hour batteries in them.

Larry Burns:

You know, one sixth to one third is big.

Larry Burns:

And, um, they're playing it differently.

Brandon Bartneck:

Well, and I'll take a stab at this, but if you

Brandon Bartneck:

had to kind of, as we close here, summarize the key points that you're

Brandon Bartneck:

hoping someone takes away from this.

Brandon Bartneck:

So, what I'm hearing is, one, the foundational thing is understanding

Brandon Bartneck:

what we're trying to optimize for is not number of trips or speed of trips

Brandon Bartneck:

or anything involving necessarily the traditional metrics, but it's

Brandon Bartneck:

Accessibility, it's flexibility, it's the ability for people to access the

Brandon Bartneck:

things that will enrich their lives, whether it's through moving themselves

Brandon Bartneck:

or moving goods to, to, to them.

Brandon Bartneck:

And two of the biggest things that we need to be driving to get out of this system is

Brandon Bartneck:

mass of the vehicles and the speed of the vehicles moving, with the end objective

Brandon Bartneck:

being, those are huge factors for safety as well as sustainability, but really,

Brandon Bartneck:

Safety is critical in both of those areas.

Brandon Bartneck:

How close is that to a kind of a neat summary and what would you add or change?

Larry Burns:

That was per that was perfect.

Larry Burns:

If you were in my class, I'd give you a pretty good grade on that summary.

Larry Burns:

I'd say you paid attention really well, and I appreciate that, but you nailed it.

Larry Burns:

That's exactly what's going on.

Brandon Bartneck:

Great, yeah, and anything else you're hoping someone

Brandon Bartneck:

takes away from the conversation here?

Larry Burns:

Just don't give up.

Larry Burns:

I think there's really some 25 years old again, knowing what I know, I'd

Larry Burns:

be extremely excited about the career opportunities, the new business growth

Larry Burns:

opportunities, and The, uh, ways to make life better for a lot more people, but

Larry Burns:

we, we have to get out of this trap of, of, um, right and wrong and, you know,

Larry Burns:

all these different extreme political views that people are taking on, because

Larry Burns:

that, that's causing frictional losses in the system when everybody can be

Larry Burns:

flourishing, really, really can't.

Larry Burns:

I mean, you hear this debate about the, you The East Coast elites in the city, the

Larry Burns:

East Coast urban elites versus the rural Midwest people or the rural South people.

Larry Burns:

We don't need that.

Larry Burns:

We have a chance with these technologies, in my opinion, for everybody to benefit.

Larry Burns:

No matter where they live, no matter what they want to do in their life.

Larry Burns:

And when everyone jumps quickly to judge something through those kind of

Larry Burns:

political lenses, that's not, that's not serving us well, Brandon, so.

Larry Burns:

I'm hoping, uh, people will open their minds up and understand some of these

Larry Burns:

concepts more broadly and, and, and see this path forward, uh, is very compelling.

Larry Burns:

All

Brandon Bartneck:

right.

Brandon Bartneck:

Yeah.

Brandon Bartneck:

And I think that's a, that's a great place to leave it.

Brandon Bartneck:

Well, Larry, once again, really appreciate it.

Brandon Bartneck:

This has been a lot, a lot of fun, great getting your thoughts, definitely learning

Brandon Bartneck:

and has, has my mind, uh, thinking about many different things and I hope to

Brandon Bartneck:

hope the same for anyone listening here.

Brandon Bartneck:

So yeah, really appreciate it.

Brandon Bartneck:

Thank you.

Larry Burns:

Thank you.

Larry Burns:

Stay in touch, please, Brandon.

Larry Burns:

Thank you.

Larry Burns:

Bye.

Brandon Bartneck:

Well, there you have it.

Brandon Bartneck:

Hope you enjoyed that conversation with Larry Burns.

Brandon Bartneck:

So, what stands out?

Brandon Bartneck:

First, the, starting with why, right?

Brandon Bartneck:

Why are we doing this?

Brandon Bartneck:

What are we trying to achieve?

Brandon Bartneck:

And the key thing is we're not moving vehicles for the sake of moving vehicles.

Brandon Bartneck:

We're not even moving people or goods for the sake of moving people and goods.

Brandon Bartneck:

What we're doing is enriching lives through mobility.

Brandon Bartneck:

And we're providing access and flexibility, we're providing access

Brandon Bartneck:

to The services and the places and the things that people want and so

Brandon Bartneck:

when we reframe and we think about that ecosystem, we also realize that

Brandon Bartneck:

physical vehicles and infrastructure is not the only piece of the puzzle here.

Brandon Bartneck:

All of this whole technology ecosystem plays together, right?

Brandon Bartneck:

We talked at the beginning about a few things of like, yeah,

Brandon Bartneck:

trips can be replaced, right?

Brandon Bartneck:

So like this podcast interview, this was recorded virtually.

Brandon Bartneck:

I do these from almost always virtually virtual In the past, I would have needed

Brandon Bartneck:

to gone outside, somehow transported myself to a location where Larry was, have

Brandon Bartneck:

this discussion, move back, like, there is no effort that can be done to speed up

Brandon Bartneck:

that physical travel that would be faster or more effective or even, I think, safer,

Brandon Bartneck:

more sustainable than the way we did this.

Brandon Bartneck:

And there's downsides to that, I mean, especially in this situation,

Brandon Bartneck:

right, there's benefits of being in person and that connection and The

Brandon Bartneck:

conversation you can have in it, all of that, but there's also tremendous

Brandon Bartneck:

benefit in leveraging things outside of the physical transportation realm as

Brandon Bartneck:

part of this overall solution of what we're trying to solve for, which is

Brandon Bartneck:

accessibility is, as Larry mentioned.

Brandon Bartneck:

So that reframing is critical.

Brandon Bartneck:

And then when you think about the key levers that we have to

Brandon Bartneck:

pull and the key challenges in the system, which we talk about.

Brandon Bartneck:

Mass and how mass begets mass.

Brandon Bartneck:

And we continue to add mass as well as speed to the system.

Brandon Bartneck:

That's not sustainable.

Brandon Bartneck:

It's not safe.

Brandon Bartneck:

There's a bunch of, uh, negative externalities that come with that.

Brandon Bartneck:

So how do we solve this?

Brandon Bartneck:

And we talk about the importance of public policy, as well as the importance

Brandon Bartneck:

of all of us who are in this space doing work, realizing the objectives and our

Brandon Bartneck:

role in trying to find solutions that.

Brandon Bartneck:

Ideally provide positive externalities, or at least aren't

Brandon Bartneck:

making things worse for others.

Brandon Bartneck:

And so, a lot of challenges we talk about here.

Brandon Bartneck:

One of the things I always appreciate about Larry is the optimism

Brandon Bartneck:

that also comes along with this.

Brandon Bartneck:

Of, yes, there's challenges, there's, you know, kind of this death spiral

Brandon Bartneck:

of sorts in the mass world, right?

Brandon Bartneck:

Of mass begets mass, we get heavier and heavier and faster cars, and

Brandon Bartneck:

electrification makes us worse.

Brandon Bartneck:

And there's a lot of challenges here.

Brandon Bartneck:

Well, we also should be optimistic because we continue to innovate

Brandon Bartneck:

and we continue to find solutions.

Brandon Bartneck:

There's a lot of solutions out there.

Brandon Bartneck:

There's a lot of great work that has been done, is being done,

Brandon Bartneck:

and will continue to be done.

Brandon Bartneck:

And there are solutions out there.

Brandon Bartneck:

So let's keep working towards them.

Brandon Bartneck:

So that's, that's really what stands out to me.

Brandon Bartneck:

It's this different framing of.

Brandon Bartneck:

The challenge that we're facing, some thoughts about prioritizing

Brandon Bartneck:

the challenges and solutions, and also just the overarching optimism

Brandon Bartneck:

that comes with it of, yeah, we'll solve this and we'll figure it out.

Tris Hussey:

Hi.

Tris Hussey:

This is Tris Hussey editor of the Transit Unplugged podcast.

Tris Hussey:

Thank you for listening to this special episode of Transit Unplugged with our feed

Tris Hussey:

drop guests, Brandon Bartneck and Larry Burns from the Future of Mobility Podcast,

Tris Hussey:

look for the links to subscribe to the Future of Mobility in the show notes.

Tris Hussey:

Coming up next week, we head to Kansas City, Missouri.

Tris Hussey:

Where we talk with Frank, wait, the third President and CEO of the Kansas

Tris Hussey:

City Area, Transportation Authority, or KCATA on everything of this

Tris Hussey:

really unique agency that straddles two states and several counties.

Tris Hussey:

To get the job done.

Tris Hussey:

Now, if you want to make sure you are always up to date with whatever

Tris Hussey:

we're doing on Transit Unplugged.

Tris Hussey:

Make sure to follow us on social media and get our newsletter.

Tris Hussey:

All the information can be found@transitunplugged.com.

Tris Hussey:

Transit Unplugged is brought to you by Modaxo.

Tris Hussey:

At Modaxo we're passionate about moving the world's people.

Tris Hussey:

And at Transit Unplugged, we're passionate about telling those stories.

Tris Hussey:

So until next week, ride safe and ride happy.

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Transit Unplugged
Leading podcast on public transit hosted by Paul Comfort, SVP Modaxo.

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